Iowa State is coming off an emotional victory over Iowa last weekend and it will be interesting to see how the team responds this week. I get the sense that the Cyclones are starting to put things together on offense, defense and special teams.
Last Saturday the Cyclones employed the wide-open spread attack offense I thought we would see this year. Bret Meyer looked more comfortable and more confident. He is getting better at recognizing defenses pre-snap and making good audibles, including the big play to Phillip Bates that set up the winning field goal. The Rockets have several key injuries on defense and have really struggled on defense, their first three opponents have averaged almost 50 points. Iowa State should be able to put some points on the board.
ISU has the 30th ranked defense in the country, but they need to force more turnovers to win games. Toledo returns many of the same players that lit up the Cyclone defense in last year’s shootout, including tight end Chris Hopkins who hauled in 13 balls for 139 yards and three touchdowns. Quarterback Aaron Opelt struggled last week throwing for 38 yards and three interceptions.
Toledo has a good punter, but they don’t do anything else well on special teams. Iowa State appears to have fixed the problems they had returning punts and the kickoff return team has been very good so far. Bret Culbertson should have renewed confidence after hitting 5 of 6 field goals and the game winner against Iowa.
The Cyclones should win this game. Toledo is beat up on defense and the Cyclones are hitting their stride on offense. I expect the offense to break out tonight and finish drives with touchdowns instead of field goals. The defense has been close to getting turnovers the past two weeks, but have been unable to capitalize. The Clones will take advantage of their opportunities and get 3 to 4 turnovers.
Iowa State has not won a game comfortably since beating Kansas State 45-17 on November 5, 2005, almost two years ago. I think that all changes tonight and the Cyclones build confidence heading into the regular season.
Prediction: Iowa State 41 Toledo 21
Passing
Meyer 17-22, 216 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT
Arnaud 6-10, 77 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
Rushing
Bass 16-148, 1 TD
Robinson 7-49
Meyer 8-46
Bates 1-11
Receiving
Blythe 4-78, 2 TD
Sumrall 5-54
Hamilton 4-46
W. Franklin 1-35 TD
Bates 2-27
Catlett 2-18
Moses 2-14
Barkema 1-11
Bass 2-10
Interceptions
Allen Bell 1
Alvin Bowen 1, TD
Chris Singleton 1
Fumble Recoveries
Kurtis Taylor 1
Field Goals
Bret Culbertson 2-3
